HF5048

Purpose

This bill would create and fund a one-time study to analyze how increased immigration enforcement affects Minnesota’s economy. The analysis would look at how enforcement, including a specific effort called Operation Metro Surge, impacts workers, businesses, and overall economic activity starting in 2025, and would be completed as a report.

Key provisions

• Funding: A one-time appropriation of 250,000 from the general fund in fiscal year 2027 to the Commissioner of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) for the analysis.
• Scope of analysis: The study will examine the statewide economic impact of increased immigration enforcement on Minnesota’s workforce, small businesses, and broader economy, including effects beginning in 2025 and activities related to Operation Metro Surge (launched December 2025).
• Topics covered:
  • Labor market effects: labor force participation, workforce availability, and overall workforce shortages across sectors.
  • Small and micro businesses: impacts on family-owned, immigrant-owned, and locally owned businesses; considerations of hiring challenges, operational costs, business continuity, and long-term sustainability.
  • Sector-specific effects: agriculture, food processing, construction, health care, hospitality, manufacturing, transportation, and retail.
  • Business operations: impacts on operations, supply chains, productivity, and risks of closures or relocations.
  • Regional and demographic reach: differences across counties and between rural, suburban, and urban areas; regional labor markets.
  • Economic activity: effects on consumer spending, state and local tax revenue, and overall economic output.
• Data and collaboration: The analysis may use information from academic institutions, Minnesota businesses, state agencies, and other available data sources. The commissioner may hire a nonpartisan third party to prepare the report.

Timeline and reporting

• Start of analysis: Begin in 2025.
• Report deadline: By February 1, 2027, the commissioner must submit the analysis to the chairs and ranking minority members of the legislative committees that oversee workforce and economic development.

Significance and potential impact

• This bill creates an official, funded effort to measure how immigration enforcement policies may influence Minnesota’s labor supply, business vitality, and regional economies.
• It could influence future policy decisions by providing data on impacts to workers, immigrant-owned and other small businesses, and sectoral economics.

Fiscal and administrative notes

• One-time funding only; no ongoing annual appropriation specified.
• Requires coordination with DEED and potential contractors to produce a comprehensive report.

Significant changes to existing law

• Establishes a new one-time appropriation and mandate for a statewide economic impact analysis related to immigration enforcement, including a named enforcement operation, with a defined reporting requirement to legislators.

Relevant Terms - general fund - Commissioner of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) - analysis of the statewide economic impact - increased immigration enforcement - Operation Metro Surge - labor force participation - workforce availability - workforce shortages - small businesses - microbusinesses - family-owned businesses - immigrant-owned businesses - locally owned businesses - agriculture - food processing - construction - health care - hospitality - manufacturing - transportation - retail - business operations - supply chains - productivity - business closures - business relocations - regional economic impacts - rural, suburban, urban - regional labor markets - consumer spending - state and local tax revenue - overall economic output - academic institutions - Minnesota businesses - state agencies - nonpartisan third party - report - fiscal year 2027 - 2025 - February 1, 2027